Lynch at Large

Normally, it would be easy to say that the latest public opinion survey conducted by Opinion Research Associates is just a crock. The problem with that is that Earnie and Zoe Oakleaf, who conducted the measurement, are dedicated professions with years of experience and honest as the day is long.

At this hour, (FOX 16 did the story only moments ago) the most complete report on the results are on the Arkansas Times blog. FOX 16 and Stephens Media Group sponsored the survey.

Little Rock's widely respected and reliable Opinion Research Associates (Ernie and Zoe Oakleaf) polled 500 Arkansans on the four potential candidates and got these numbers:

Beebe 52

Hutchinson 31

Bryan 3

Lendall 2

Remainder undecided

So, is it true? Is Beebe that far ahead?

Maybe.

Max Brantley correctly observes that Beebe has started his TV campaign and Asa has not. There is also a matter of trends, which show Beebe headed up.

I think the numbers are somewhat off the mark, but I hasten to add that all surveys are mere snapshots. Radio is very much subject to ratings and I have seen some strange stuff in 36 years. I think the results represent an upward trend for Mike Beebe, but the size of that lead is hard for me to understand.

UPDATE: John Brummett ain't buying it either. His column intoday's Stephens Media Group papers tells why.